Steve Burns
WMAL.com
WASHINGTON – (WMAL) Longtime political watchers know the formula for a win in a Virginia election.
Republicans need to run up the score in rural parts of the state, especially southwest Virginia, and limit the damage in urban areas like Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Roads. Democrats essentially look to do the opposite: dominate in the urban areas, while keeping losses to a minimum in rural areas.
Right now, according to the latest data out of Christopher Newport University, it looks like the Democratic playbook is winning out.
“Ed Gillespie’s support out of southwest Virginia is weaker than I would expect it to be,” CNU’s Quentin Kidd told WMAL. Gillespie is polling at 51 percent in the region.
Kidd said that likely is not attributable to Democratic success as much as it comes from division among Republicans.
“I think that speaks to the concern the Gillespie campaign has about how enthusiastic those Trump/Corey Stewart voters are for him,” Kidd said. “I can only imagine that things would look differently, at least in southwest and south side Virginia, if Ed Gillespie had found a way for Corey Stewart to be a full-throttled endorser of Gillespie and a campaigner for Gillespie.”
Stewart, the Chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, came within about five thousand voters of pulling off an upset win over Gillespie in the primary. There was no formal endorsement, and now Stewart is now running for Senate.
Ralph Northam, however, has healthy leads in urban parts of the state, Kidd said. But another number could be a concern: Northam’s support among African-American voters is lagging behind previous races that did not involve Barack Obama.
“Democratic candidates poll between 90 and 95 percent of African-American voters. Right now, Ralph Northam is at 85 percent,” Kidd said. “If that indicates weakness in enthusiasm among African-American voters, that could be a problem for Northam on Election Day.”
Copyright 2017 by WMAL.com. All Rights Reserved. (PHOTO: Gillespie/Northam campaigns)
