(CNN) — On paper, Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes look like a slam-dunk for Hillary Clinton
So why isn’t anyone here acting like it?
“Predictions would be foolhardy” says Terry Madonna, presidential historian and longtime Pennsylvania pollster at Franklin and Marshall College. “Yes, Secretary Clinton has a sizable lead now, but this year almost anything can happen.”
Clinton has several strengths here. Her statewide campaign operation is enormous and growing. The state has 800,000 more active Democratic voters than Republicans. She got a huge bounce from the Democratic convention held in Philadelphia. And the last time a Republican presidential candidate won Pennsylvania, Kokomo by the Beach Boys was topping the charts — that was in 1988 by the way.
A Quinnipiac poll of likely voters released Tuesday found Clinton leading Trump 52% to 42% in Pennsylvania. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll also released Tuesday found Clinton leading Trump by 11 points.
But David Urban, senior adviser to the Trump Campaign for Pennsylvania, says there is one thing Clinton doesn’t have — enthusiasm.
“When Hillary is here she gets maybe 1,000 people at her rally” says Urban. “When Trump is here, we’re talking 10,000.”
Working in Trump’s favor, Pennsylvania voters are traditionally working class and not particularly ideological. Barack Obama handily beat John McCain in 2008 but won by a much smaller margin against Mitt Romney in 2012.
Republicans here also point out that the party performs quite well at the state level. After all, the GOP controls both houses of the state legislature and 13 of the state’s 18 congressmen are Republicans.
“We’re part of the so-called Rust Belt theory,” says Madonna. “Win the white blue-collar workers in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin and you got an electoral college mix that could get Donald Trump to 270.”
Republicans say their best shot at winning Pennsylvania is finding voters upset with the establishment and the status quo and getting them to realize Trump represents change.
“Neither of the candidates are particularly well liked so it’s going to come down to policy,” says Andy Reilly, Delaware County GOP Chairman. “When it comes down to policy and Trump’s policy, he will win. He just has to show some discipline. It’s not unexpected what he’s done because he’s not a politician, he’s a businessman who thinks common sense first. Hopefully he’ll get his sea legs and bring the Republican Party together. We have the ground game to do it.”
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