Election Day Finally Brings Nasty, Narrowing VA Race To An End

John Matthews
WMAL.com

RICHMOND, VA — Could a rainy election day be a lucky charm for Ed Gillespie?

The Republican nominee for Governor of Virginia has trailed in most pre-election polls in the months leading up to Tuesday, but Gillespie has been enjoying a late surge against Democrat Lt. Governor Ralph Northam, and several surveys show the race to be a virtual tie as voters prepare to cast their ballots.

Polls opened at 6 am, and will remain open until 7 pm, as voters brave rain across much of the Commonwealth – rain that may favor the Republican.

“Democratic voters tend to be fairweather voters more than Republicans,” says Christopher Newport University Political Science Professor Quentin Kidd. “It’s not expected to be a complete washout all over the state, and I don’t expect weather to play a big role, but it could play some role in the outcome.”

Kidd told WMAL that Northam will be looking for a large turnout in Northern Virginia, and he says if Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties provide a half-million or more votes for the Democrat, it will be a very good day for Northam.

For Gillespie, a smaller turnout may be more to his advantage, except in southside rural Virginia, where President Trump drew his greatest support in 2016, and where Gillespie’s primary race opponent, Corey Stewart, dominated the vote count.

“Gillespie needs to hope that turnout is lower than 43 percent. If it’s 41, 40 percent, then it’s good for Gillespie, because more than that is probably more a Democratic than a Republican turnout,” says Kidd.

The Governor’s race has become known in recent weeks for its negative TV advertising, with Northam taking hits from Gillespie ads claiming the Democrat is soft on immigration, and anti-Gillespie ads depicting Republican supporters as bigots.

The Northam campaign has tried to tie Gillespie closely to President Trump, but the Republican has taken steps to keep his distance from the White House, appearing only with Vice President Pence on the campaign trail and repeatedly refusing to acknowledge President Trump’s tweeted endorsements.

That did not stop the President from sending out a trio of election day tweets Tuesday:

Ralph Northam will allow crime to be rampant in Virginia. He’s weak on crime, weak on our GREAT VETS, Anti-Second Amendment….

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2017

….and has been horrible on Virginia economy. Vote @EdWGillespie today!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2017

.@EdWGillespie will totally turn around the high crime and poor economic performance of VA. MS-13 and crime will be gone. Vote today, ASAP!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2017

Aside from the Governor’s race, Virginia voters will choose a new Lt. Governor and Attorney General on Tuesday, and will decide contested races for the House of Delegates. Maryland also has a handful of municipal elections, with Mayoral races in Frederick, Annapolis and College Park.